Entwicklung der Leistungsempfängerzahlen in der Gesetzlichen Pflegeversicherung – Zum Einfluss unterschiedlicher Morbiditätsannahmen auf die Entwicklung der sozialrechtlich anerkannten Pflegebedürftigkeit in Deutschland
Year: 2014
Author: Bowles, David, Zuchandke, Andy, Greiner, Wolfgang, Graf von der Schulenburg, J.-Matthias
Journal of Contextual Economics – Schmollers Jahrbuch, Vol. 134 (2014), Iss. 2 : pp. 209–236
Abstract
Demographic change in Germany will lead to a higher number of people in need of long-term care and an increasing demand for Long-term Care Insurance (LTCI) services. While the general rise in beneficiaries is not controversial, there is uncertainty about the magnitude of change, which also depends on the development of morbidity patterns. Simulations show that the number of LTCI beneficiaries is likely to double through 2080 if age- and sex-specific prevalence rates are held constant; following this scenario, life expectancy spend in long-term care is going to rise in absolute as well as relative terms. Even in scenarios simulating a compression of need for long-term care a general increase in the number of beneficiaries is unavoidable. Beside the number of LTCI beneficiaries other factors like the number of informal caregivers or the adjustment of LTCI benefit levels also influence the financial development of LTCI.
Journal Article Details
Publisher Name: Global Science Press
Language: German
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3790/schm.134.2.209
Journal of Contextual Economics – Schmollers Jahrbuch, Vol. 134 (2014), Iss. 2 : pp. 209–236
Published online: 2014-06
AMS Subject Headings: Duncker & Humblot
Copyright: COPYRIGHT: © Global Science Press
Pages: 28