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Zeitenwende bei Inflation und Zinsen

Zeitenwende bei Inflation und Zinsen
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Year:    2022

Author:    Demary, Markus, Zdrzalek, Jonas

Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Vol. 91 (2022), Iss. 2 : pp. 13–24

Abstract

Supply shortages in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s war against Ukraine have contributed to a resurgence in inflation rates. We argue that the following six structural factors have strengthened. This is why inflation and also higher interest rates are not only temporary, but possible again in the medium term: de-globalization, decarbonization, demographic development, digitalization, government spending and monetary policy. Investments in transformation, higher defense spending and the reconstruction of Ukraine are central to this. These will increase demand for raw materials and labor, which is likely to lead to price reactions. At the same time, the high investment demand will contribute to higher real interest rates. It is possible that the European Central Bank (ECB) will have to slow economic activity or even initiate a recession in order to prevent a loss of confidence in its inflation targeting strategy by destabilizing inflation expectations. In the longer term, however, this environment of higher inflation and higher real interest rates could move key monetary policy rates away from the zero bound and lead to a normalization of monetary policy with a higher focus on preventing high inflation and less focus on preventing low inflation.

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Journal Article Details

Publisher Name:    Global Science Press

Language:    German

DOI:    https://doi.org/10.3790/vjh.91.2.13

Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Vol. 91 (2022), Iss. 2 : pp. 13–24

Published online:    2022-04

AMS Subject Headings:    Duncker & Humblot, Duncker & Humblot

Copyright:    COPYRIGHT: © Global Science Press

Pages:    12

Keywords:    E31 E43 E44 E52 E62 De-globalization decarbonization demography digitalization inflation interest rates

Author Details

Demary, Markus

Zdrzalek, Jonas

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Section Title Page Action Price
Markus Demary / Jonas Zdrzalek: Zeitenwende bei Inflationund Zinsen 13
1 Zeitenwende auch auf den Finanzmärkten 14
2 Aktuelle und zukünftige Treiber von Inflation und Zinsen 14
2.1 De-Globalisierung 14
2.2 Dekarbonisierung 17
2.3 Digitalisierung 18
2.4 Demographie und Arbeitsmarkt 19
2.5 Staatsausgaben 20
2.6 Geldpolitik 21
3 Fazit 22
Literaturverzeichnis 23