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Die Substitution fossiler Energieträger – die Analyse wirtschaftlicher Kurz- und Langfristwirkungen

Die Substitution fossiler Energieträger – die Analyse wirtschaftlicher Kurz- und Langfristwirkungen
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Year:    2022

Author:    Mittnik, Stefan, Semmler, Willi

Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Vol. 91 (2022), Iss. 3 : pp. 11–44

Abstract

Recent controversies over the impact of an energy embargo on Russia triggered by Russia’s war in Ukraine have focused on reducing dependence on fossil fuels and reorganizing energy supplies. Economists have come up with very different predictions about the consequences of such an embargo. However, the empirical basis and the extent of output losses remain unclear – also in terms of whether the predicted losses refer to the level of output or its future growth rates. Moreover, the period and duration of the predicted losses are not or insufficiently specified. Furthermore, it is not explained how the size and dynamics of the losses depend on the state of the economy. Substituting fossil fuels with renewables has long been an important policy perspective of the EU and its member states. Reliable economic impact assessments of both a short-term embargo and longer-term decarbonization are important prerequisites for the implementation of comprehensive policy measures.

In the following, we present a model-based econometric framework for such an analysis in order to estimate both the short-term effects in terms of fossil energy shortages and long-term effects of different climate policy measures on individual sectors of the economy. The background for our work is a multisectoral growth model, which has been studied in detail elsewhere. We limit ourselves here to an empirically oriented analysis based on multisector input-output tables for Germany and other countries, drawing on more recent input-output analysis as well as econometric and macrodynamic work. For simplicity, the multisector model is reduced to two sectors. The short-term consequences of an energy shock are examined using a nonlinear multi-regime VAR model. The long-term consequences of a decarbonization of the economy are explored using composite policy shocks applied to a VAR model. Here, the results indicate positive effects on production and employment, especially in the long run.

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Journal Article Details

Publisher Name:    Global Science Press

Language:    German

DOI:    https://doi.org/10.3790/vjh.91.3.11

Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Vol. 91 (2022), Iss. 3 : pp. 11–44

Published online:    2022-07

AMS Subject Headings:    Duncker & Humblot, Duncker & Humblot

Copyright:    COPYRIGHT: © Global Science Press

Pages:    34

Keywords:    D5 E3 L1 Q4 C01 C013 D57 P28 Q42 Q43 Energy substitution embargo effect decarbonization green energy I/O-sector-analysis climate policy production and employment effects non-linear Multi-Regime VAR pulse analysis

Author Details

Mittnik, Stefan

Semmler, Willi

  1. Deindustrialisierung, Transformation und eine moderne Industriepolitik

    Brandt, Arno | Krämer, Hagen

    Wirtschaftsdienst, Vol. 102 (2023), Iss. 12 P.918

    https://doi.org/10.1007/s10273-022-3337-7 [Citations: 0]
  2. Sustainable Macroeconomics, Climate Risks and Energy Transitions

    Climate Risks, Sustainable Finance, and Climate Policy

    Nyambuu, Unurjargal | Semmler, Willi

    2023

    https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-27982-9_11 [Citations: 0]

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Section Title Page Action Price
Stefan Mittnik / Willi Semmler: Die Substitution fossiler Energieträger – die Analyse wirtschaftlicher Kurz- und Langfristwirkungen 11
1 Einleitung 12
2 Daten 15
3 Kurzfristige Perspektive: Energieschocks und Konjunkturphasen 16
3.1 Methodik 16
3.2 Empirische Ergebnisse 19
4 Langfristige Perspektive: VAR-Analyse mit kombinierten Impulsen 24
4.1 Daten und Länderauswahl 25
4.2 Modellspezifikation 26
4.3 IRF-Analyse für die USA 27
4.4 Analyse alternativer Politikmaßnahmen 31
CO2-Steuer und Subvention 31
CO2-Steuer – keine Subvention 33
CO2-Steuer und Lohnsubventionen 34
4.5 Übersicht der Länderergebnisse 35
4.6 Ergebnisse 39
5 Schlussfolgerungen 39
Anhang: 41
Literaturverzeichnis 42