Year: 2009
Author: Kholodilin, Konstantin A, Siliverstovs, Boriss
Applied Economics Quarterly, Vol. 55 (2009), Iss. 4 : pp. 269–293
Abstract
The paper evaluates the quality of the German national accounting data (GDP and its use-side components) as measured by the magnitude and dispersion of the forecast / revision errors. It is demonstrated that government consumption series are the least reliable, whereas real GDP and real private consumption data are the most reliable. In addition, early forecasts of GDP, private consumption, and investment growth rates are shown to be systematically upward biased. Finally, early forecasts of all the variables seem to be no more accurate than naïve forecasts based on the historical mean of the final data.
JEL Classifications: C53; C89
Journal Article Details
Publisher Name: Global Science Press
Language: English
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3790/aeq.55.4.269
Applied Economics Quarterly, Vol. 55 (2009), Iss. 4 : pp. 269–293
Published online: 2009-10
AMS Subject Headings: Duncker & Humblot
Copyright: COPYRIGHT: © Global Science Press
Pages: 25
Author Details
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