Die Prognosen für 1988 im Rückblick: Der Börsenkrach vom 19. Oktober 1987 und seine gesamtwirtschaftlichen Folgen
Year: 1990
Author: Heilemann, Ullrich
Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, Vol. 23 (1990), Iss. 2 : pp. 174–195
Abstract
The 1988 Economic Forecasts in Retrospect: The Stock Exchange Crash of 19 October 1987 and its Implications for the Economy Overall
The paper analyzes the reasons why West Germany's economic forecasts for the year 1988 turned out to be wrong. It examines a prognosis drawn up on the basis of the RWI (Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) cyclical forecasting model, i.e. a medium-size econometric model for the Federal Republic of Germany, that has been used for current forecasting and simulation purposes for more than ten years.
The methodical basis mainly consists of a number of simulation runs which show that the most serious error source is to be found in the assumptions used in forecasting public building investment and, more particularly, world trade on the basis of that model, and this evaluation is likely to be valid also for the non-econometric prognoses. Besides inventory estimates, the most important endogenous error source must be deemed to be the apparently changed profit withdrawal propensity. The latter had noteworthy consequences for the accuracy of consumption analyses.
The findings presented reject indirectly the hypothesis that the unexpectedly positive 1988 development of the West German economy overall indicated that the supply-side improvements of previous years had begun to make themselves felt. The positive result is rather to be explained by the continued strong export orientation of the economy of the Federal Republic of Germany.
Journal Article Details
Publisher Name: Global Science Press
Language: Multiple languages
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.23.2.174
Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, Vol. 23 (1990), Iss. 2 : pp. 174–195
Published online: 1990-02
AMS Subject Headings: Duncker & Humblot
Copyright: COPYRIGHT: © Global Science Press
Pages: 22
Author Details
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