THIS IS THE DEV/TESTING WEBSITE IPv4: 3.149.243.104 IPv6: || Country by IP: GB
Close Search Advanced
Journals
Resources
About Us
Open Access
Journals
Resources
About Us
Open Access

Die Theorie rationaler Erwartungen: Das Ende der Konjunkturpolitik?

Die Theorie rationaler Erwartungen: Das Ende der Konjunkturpolitik?
Read Now
Download (PDF)

Year:    1988

Author:    Fuhrmann, Wilfried

Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, Vol. 21 (1988), Iss. 1 : pp. 67–91

Abstract

Is the Rational Expectations Theory the End of Trade Cycle Policy?

Contrary to widely announced views of politicians, and despite of the theory of rational expectations (not rational forming of expectations) this survey argues, that fiscal and monetary policies are powerful tools for stabilization-purposes. Of course, those times of a fine-tuning based on a fix-price IS-LM-framework (or other oversimplified models, velocity-concepts, etc.) preached by hydraulic-economists of all paradigms are gone – in economic-theory. But still we need departures away from atemporal (mainly neoclassical or walrasian) models as well as more insights into the structure of existing economic systems beyond Say; systems which are in general open to an uncertain future with regime-changes, structural shocks, etc. Examplified through the development within the “new classical macroeconomics” or the “new monetary economics”, the message to keynesian mechanics is an old one: “The difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones, which ramify, for those brought up as most of use have been, into every corner of our minds” (J. M. Keynes, 1936, Preface, p. xxiii).

Journal Article Details

Publisher Name:    Global Science Press

Language:    Multiple languages

DOI:    https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.21.1.67

Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital, Vol. 21 (1988), Iss. 1 : pp. 67–91

Published online:    1988-01

AMS Subject Headings:    Duncker & Humblot

Copyright:    COPYRIGHT: © Global Science Press

Pages:    25

Author Details

Fuhrmann, Wilfried

  1. Arrow, K. J. and Hahn, F. H. (1971): General Competitive Analysis, Mathematical Economic Texts, San Francisco, Amsterdam.  Google Scholar
  2. Barro, R. J. (1974): Are Government Bonds Net Wealth? Journal of Political Economy, 1095 – 1118.  Google Scholar
  3. Barro, R. J. (1977): Long-Term Contracting, Sticky Prices, and Monetary Policy, Journal of Monetary Economics, 305 – 316.  Google Scholar
  4. Barro, R.J. (1979): Second Thoughts on Keynesian Economics, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 54 – 63.  Google Scholar
  5. Batchelor, R.A. (1981): Aggregate Expectations under the Stable Laws, Journal of Econometrics, 199 – 210.  Google Scholar

Section Title Page Action Price
Wilfried Fuhrmann: Die Theorie rationaler Erwartungen:\rDas Ende der Konjunkturpolitik? 67
I. Einführung 67
II. Rationale Wirtschaftspolitik bei Keynes 67
1. Zur Geldnachfrage 67
2. Rationale Erwartungsbildung und Markteffizienz 69
3. Rationale Wirtschaftspolitik bei rationalen Erwartungen 71
III. Aussagen der Neuen Klassischen Makroökonomik (NKM) 73
1. Die Phillips-Kurve 74
2. Die Neutralität des Geldes 76
3. Zur Annahmen-Sensivität der Ergebnisse 77
(1) Die Annahme vollkommen flexibler Preise 77
(2) Bei Existenz von Geldvermögen 79
(3) Die Annahmen kostenloser Informationen und „normalverteilter\" Störterme 80
IV. Schlußfolgerungen 81
1. Der Stand der NKM 81
2. Stand im Keynesianismus 83
Literatur 86
Zusammenfassung: Die Theorie rationaler Erwartungen: Das Ende der Konjunkturpolitik? 90
Summary: Is the Rational Expectations Theory the End of Trade Cycle Policy? 90
Résumé: La théorie d'attentes rationnelles: la fin de la politique conjoncturelle? 91