Year: 2000
Author: Döpke, Jörg
Journal of Contextual Economics – Schmollers Jahrbuch, Vol. 120 (2000), Iss. 4 : pp. 587–620
Abstract
The paper analyzes whether business cycle forecasts in Germany show a political bias. Several explanations for a political influence on forecasts are discussed. Using predictions from the German Institute of Economic Research and the Kiel Institute of World Economics, the hypotheses are tested empirically. The results provide no evidence supporting opportunistic or partisan behavior of the institutes. In contrast, there is some evidence in favor of the hypothesis of intentional forecast errors. The results, however, depend on the econometric technique used. In particular, in some instances, parametric and non-parametric tests lead to conflicting results.
Journal Article Details
Publisher Name: Global Science Press
Language: Multiple languages
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3790/schm.120.4.587
Journal of Contextual Economics – Schmollers Jahrbuch, Vol. 120 (2000), Iss. 4 : pp. 587–620
Published online: 2000-04
AMS Subject Headings: Duncker & Humblot
Copyright: COPYRIGHT: © Global Science Press
Pages: 34
Author Details
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